Hey Middle Class, Is Your Job At Risk?

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Most people are divided between employees and the unemployed. Few who actually own some business. We have already talked about the importance of having your own business, under the * high* risk of ever being financially independent.

However, many people depend on a job. Even those who are accumulating capital to start their own business. And these words can happen to anyone: “- Thank you for everything, you were great to the company but you’re fired. Sorry. Good Luck!”

This is exactly what we are going to talk about today: the risk of losing your job.

Summary of Scenario

I’ll just give you a brief summary of what you need to keep in mind. Do not focus on the numbers, but the essence of the news.

I. In February 2016, a report by Citibank/University of Oxford predicted that 47% of US jobs are at risk of automation. In the UK, 35% are. In China 77%. The OECD it’s an average of 57%.

II. In 2016, World Bank report shows developing countries could have as much as 84% of jobs replaced by robots.

III. The predictions from PricewaterhouseCoopers said that by the early 2030s, 38% of US jobs are at a high risk of automation.

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IV. The CEO of Yum Brands (KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut) said that machines could replace human workers in 10 years.

V. JP Morgan has announced it is now using software that can accomplish in seconds what it took legal aides 360,000 hours of work to do.

VI. Automation replaced 17,000 people’s jobs at one of the world’s largest professional services and tech firms Accenture over the 2016.

We’re not just talking about fast food jobs. But we also talk about typical jobs of the middle class: banks, IT companies, lawyers, etc. Nor are we just talking about emerging countries, typical of manufacturing. We speak of US, UK, and developed countries.

Ok. I’m Middle Class. Is my job at risk?

TIER 1 (Jobs that need a degree, have higher status, with a little risk of automation)

Anesthesiologists, Plastic surgeon, Oncologist, Cardiologist, Intensivist. Although technology advances in these areas, doctors will hardly be replaced by robots. They will be aided by technologies and not replaced by them. People see health with a *strong* emotional bond. Human contact is necessary.

Judges, Prosecutors. The highest positions in the judiciary will remain disputed because of the power, influence and status they enjoy. We do not see changes in these positions.

Engineers (not all). We suggest those connected directly with clean energies, automation, big dates and robots. Some engineering is saturated and outdated, and the market knows this. However, the engineer knows how to solve problems and uses logic for this. One positive point.

TIER 2 (Jobs that need a degree, have good/higher status, with a considerable risk of automation)

Accountants and Auditors. We admire the work of these guys. It is incredibly thorough. But software has incredible detail and almost perfect precision. It’s an unfair competition with the human. But the market does not care.

Lawyers, Paralegal, Legal Assistants. Half of these guys are easily replaced. Legal profession will not end. What will happen will be a *hard* selection.

Personal Financial Advisers, Investment Funds and Hedge Funds. The ETF market is bleeding these guys like never before.

Journalists, Reporters, Correspondents. The internet crippled this industry. Traditional newspapers are closing and any boy from Bulgaria can make more fake news success than a traditional print newspaper. Even the ‘untouchable’ ESPN has announced a historic dismissal of its anchors and commentators.

TIER 3 (Jobs that do not require a degree, offer little/nothing social status and have a high risk of automation)

Manufacturing. The fabrication, processing, or preparation of products from raw materials and commodities. This includes all foods, chemicals, textiles, machines, and equipment.

Services. Receptionists, information clerks, cooks, security guards, taxi drivers, chauffeurs, telemarketing, retail salesperson, bartenders, fast foods employees.

There is not much here to say. Just understand the logic. Works easily replaced by machines, without the emotional need of human contact and which do not involve any place of status in society. End of the line.

Conclusion

Reducing the chances of losing your job is proportional to your essentiality for society. But remember: society changes what it considers essential.

No profession is forever in the history (well, prostitution has existed for centuries, but statistically it is difficult for a girl of these to become definitely rich. Big downsides on the road). The only way to drastically *decrease * the odds is your own business. 

For example, if PwC is right that 44% of retail jobs are at risk, then 2.3 million jobs just in the UK are on the line. The financial and insurance sector in the US have 61% of high risk to automation. How many millions work in this sector? Do you work in these industries?

Be honest with yourself.

A) Analyze objectively their profession. Is she in TIER 1, 2 or 3? No passions here.

B) Do you know only your profession? Too bad.

C) Is your only source of income your profession? Desperately bad.

D) Do you believe that marches and the government will save your job? Seek psychological counseling. Or a history book. The second option is recommended.

E) Do you believe that your employer owes you a favor, is grateful, or is faithful to you? Do you believe in tooth fairy too?

Do not expect the inevitable to occur. Make your moves while it is not over the pressure of unemployment.

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8 thoughts on “Hey Middle Class, Is Your Job At Risk?

  1. Hi my friend! We can repair robots at least. Or as a friend said (she) “at least prostitution can be our last alternative.” kkkkkkkk

    Nobody is safe. But I think it’s good to humanity. In the distant future, I see a lot of robots doing the hard job, few humans in the world (like one billion) just repairing and programming the robots. Everybody with a high stand of life. Great for all.

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  2. hi TR,

    How Metallica would say “Sad but true”. Those numbers are crazy!

    You forgot one class to the Tier 1 : Military. We always will need them to do some tasks like special forces em spy jobs and wars never ends.

    Cheers!

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    • I don’t agree with military.

      For example, in the US, the median annual Sergeant (Army) salary is $28,939, with a range usually between $22,000-$30,000. However this can vary widely depending on a variety of factors.

      Perhaps a position as major may be considered. The median annual Major (Army), with + 6 Years Experience salary is $73,000.

      Jobs in sales, wall street and silicon valley show the same number of competition and salaries in the six-figure house. No transfer to Afghanistan or Iraq.

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      • But you aren’t considering others facts like ideology or capability to work as some appointments. usually guys those who can be military hardly can work in silicon valley. However in Brazil is different. Militaries have others benefits over the salary.

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  3. I’m a TI guy and already using a lot of automation to do my job. I have dozen of bots doing tasks to me. They report back by Slack channels (a chat service). Let´s work less until they replace me 😀

    I see a huge demand for Financial Advisors in Brazil. Basic finance education is lacking. I even can’t keep up requests by demanding coworkers, friends and family

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    • I agree with the lack of financial education in Brazil. It is a colossal market to be filled. I don’t know if people actually WANT this, but there is the opportunity.

      By the way, I don’t know if financial advisor will not be replaced by investment robots or even low-fee ETFs. Maybe you can explain your perception of it.

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